A couple of stories on NPR this past week have got me thinking about the importance of anticipating how the world is changing and placing yourself in an optimal position to take advantage of opportunities that will arise when the predicted changes occur. First, I listened to a great segment from This American Life called Someone Else’s Money. If you thought, like I did, that health insurance has been around forever, the second act of this podcast shows how a new industry was born within the last century. As it walked through the world political and financial events that created our modern health care system I wondered if there was anyone who could have envisioned the dramatic changes and potential behind the concept of insurance.
A second, shorter piece looked into Vizio’s stellar rise into prominence among LCD TV manufacturers. The founders, who had experience with LCD monitors, realized that the LCD technology would make for great televisions. Even though large flat displays were being produced, they were being sold at high prices. Their thought was “We know how these things are made; they shouldn’t cost that much”. Using their expertise and contacts, they launched a low price entry into the market and today are competitive with huge electronics firms like Sony and Samsung (Visio employs around 150 people). They were able to anticipate the disruption caused by the transition from analog to digital television and place themselves directly in the path of oncoming demand.
I was left with a couple of takeaways from these stories. I think they are representative of the increased rate of disruption that is occurring in our world today and emphasizes the need to be agile-minded in developing business ideas. More importantly, it made me curious to find strategies for anticipating change. When I’m interviewed in 5 years, what quote will seem obvious then about a future market trend. Does anyone have any tips or techniques that are useful for envisioning where and what changes are going to occur? How do you force yourself to integrate future market demands into your ideas and products today? Since blindly predicting the future is as likely to be detrimental as it is helpful, how do you educate yourselves about future trends?
I think it can start by looking for what people need or are frustrated with. Even the TV’s was about meeting the frustration of the lack of a more affordable or valued product and not so much about creating this new invention that suddenly people were clamoring for.
works for me