In previous posts I’ve mentioned my feeling that the rate of disruption is accelerating. Watching traditional media flounder has reinforced this opinion. A combination of last week’s TechCrunch article on newspapers and then a local newspaper shutdown announcement today is driving that point home. Newspapers are an extreme example of the impact that technological shifts can have on previously stable business models. Free and convenient news can now be found online from a variety of sources. In many cases, craigslist will attract a bigger audience than any classified ad might and in most cases won’t cost a penny. This has resulted in a drastic decrease in relevance for newspapers.
Sadly, I think that newspapers have lost too much ground to recover and that this will result in lower quality news from fewer sources as more and more players are forced out. I do think, however, that the newspaper business has given us an excellent example of how important it is not to become too dependent on assumptions of perpetual status quo.
Google recently announced the inclusion of free turn-by-turn navigation with unsurprisingly graphic results for the GPS makers. Are there any shifts that could render your business model dead in the water? Will a new technology reduce your effectiveness? Are unseen competitors able to enter your market at a cost that makes your business unprofitable?
The hardest part of the situation is knowing when to stop riding your wave of success. Are there any examples of traditional media that was able to make a change and stay competitive?
In order to stay ahead of the disruption curve a company has to be willing to cannabalize their current market.
Personally I find that hard to do especially when you’ve worked so hard to get where you are. It the emotional investment and the uncertainty that makes disruptions so effective.